"How do formal and informal institutions alter the formula's predictions?"
Models how institutions constrain, amplify, and redirect behavioral dynamics. Responsible for the institutional constraint parameters and the institutional constraint vector I_t. Institutions are the hidden variable that determines why two societies with identical Psi scores can have radically different outcomes — they set the 'rules of the game' within which the formula's dynamics play out.
Institutional constraint variable fully defined: I_t is a 5-dimensional vector (R_t, V_t, B_t, P_t, X_t) with per-equation drift modulations A_1–A_8, empirically grounded via V-Dem, Polity V, WGI, and Jones & Olken's death-in-office natural experiment.
pi_path = 0.96 annual institutional persistence — institutions have a half-life of ~17 years, validating the path-dependence structure.
delta_prop specified for propaganda decay; B_t = 1 − WGI GovEffectiveness for bureaucratic inertia.
Philosopher quote: 'The empirical sourcing is the best in the project to date — Jones & Olken's death-in-office instrument is one of the strongest natural experiments in political science.'
Provides the institutional constraint vector I_t = (R_t, V_t, B_t, P_t, X_t) with 8 per-equation modulations (A_1 through A_8). Defines C_regime matrix, pi_path=0.96 path dependence, delta_prop propaganda decay, B_t bureaucratic inertia. These institutional terms modulate all drift equations, making the formula's predictions regime-conditional — a democracy and an autocracy with identical S_t will follow different trajectories.
See the full formula →Institutional equilibrium I_eq(S_t) unresolved — steady-state institutional values not yet defined
Institutional constraint vector (I_t) drift equation not fully specified
Bureaucratic inertia (B_t) zero-point definition pending
Urbanization rate (β_U) has 90% cross-country residual variation undocumented — institutional variation not yet captured
No country-specific state vectors (S_t) have been populated yet — a bottleneck for empirical validation