Ground truth validation
The only honest test of whether the formula works. Predictions are logged before events resolve. Scoring uses the Brier score (lower is better, max possible = 0). Target: beat market consensus on >55% of resolved events.
1/1
predictions beat market
0.0400
average Brier score
2
active predictions
55%
target beat rate
01
Formula runs
The polymarket_tracker sub-agent fetches live market data and runs the current formula version against each open market.
02
Prediction logged
Our probability estimate and the market consensus probability are both logged before the event resolves. No retroactive changes.
03
Brier score calculated
When the market resolves, both predictions are scored. Brier = (prediction - outcome)². Lower is better. Market Brier > our Brier = win.
| Market | Our P | Market P | Confidence | Date Made | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will the UK exit NATO by June 30, 2026? Formula: 2.5% [0.5%, 8%]. Market started at 10%, now 5.1% (65.3% convergence toward our estimate). 73 days to resolution. NDAA Section 1250A and 180-day notification requirement make structural exit physically implausible at this horizon. | 2.5% | 5.1% | HIGH — formula predicts structural stability of institutional anchors in Zone 3 OECD states | April 7, 2026 | Pending |
Will Keir Starmer cease to be UK PM by December 31, 2026? Our 58% [40%, 73%] vs market that started at 67.5%, now 60.0%. 78.9% convergence toward our estimate in 2 days — strongest signal since TISZA resolved. 257 days to resolution. Semantics: probability of 'out by Dec 31' (not 'remain'). | 58.0% | 60.0% | LOW — Zone 3 OECD (PSI validity 0.25). Prediction running primarily on institutional-constraint analysis (Labour 412-seat supermajority), not PSI composite. | April 16, 2026 | Pending |
| Market | Our P | Market P | Confidence | Date Made | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hungary: Will Tisza win the 2026 parliamentary election? FIRST FORMULA WIN. Market Brier: 0.0729. Our Brier: 0.0400. Elite overproduction + PSI elevation correctly identified structural fragility of Orbán's regime. | 80.0% | 74.0% | HIGH — Zone 2 (industrializing) PSI validity 0.45 | April 7, 2026 | Beat marketBrier: 0.0400 |